CoupCast is a political forecasting effort originally developed by Curtis Bell at One Earth Future. As the name implies, the primary goal was to use novel data and machine learning to forecast coups d’etat. After Bell’s successful shift to maritime security issues, the project was managed by Clayton Besaw and Matthew Frank. Their coverage of monthly updates to the data project can be found on OEF Forecasting’s (now inactive) Medium account.
CoupCast was transfered from OEF to University of Central Florida in December 2021 and is currently directed by Jonathan Powell. Contributors to the relaunch of CoupCast are currently updating necessary data and code and updates leading up to the relaunch will be posted here. Inquiries regarding the project can be directed to Jonathan Powell, Associate Professor in the School of Politics, Security, and International Affairs at UCF.
CoupCast estimates up to August 2021 can be found in the REIGN data files. Estimates through the end of 2022 will be released in December 2022, and will thereafter be updated monthly.
CoupCast in the Media
Arrested Dictatorship 